Grassroots Currency Speculation

The recent trouble that the United States was part of and Australia joined in on over the Coronavirus has disturbed the currency markets . The Asian session is showing no clear direction and currencies that were trending have stopped in their tracks and reversed course. It looks like the big players have decided to hit the pause button and just cash in some of their profits. We will have to stay tuned to see what becomes of the dispute between China and Australia. The last thing I heard was that the two countries were trying to work on a diplomatic solution. The market might find some direction later tonight or during the London Session but it looks like The Asian session is taking a cooling off period.  Follow me on Twitter

I woke up this morning and checked the charts. To my delight the trade we made on AudChf was in profit by 24 pips so we closed the trade and booked the profit. I gave the trade 15 hours to go in my favor. That is about as long as you need for these current strategies that I am running. Anything more and you risk the fundamentals of the trade being influenced by some outside factor that was not part of the planning. We took our Profit at .6370, so I am delighted to see this. The profit was booked during New York and London Session. We got in during Tokyo Session. So we will see how long the Swiss franc stays weak. In other news the AudUsd looks like a play. We have not been following it that closely because we have other pairs on the radar but looking at the charts this morning it looks like it is trending fairly smoothly.

The Australian Dollar is showing strength this week and the Swiss Franc has been weak. The AudChf currency pair is showing signs of being a reasonable choice. It has been moved rather steadily for the last few days on an upward trajectory. It pauses sometimes and there seems to be profit taking but the overall trend is up and trading trends is a major part of my strategy. I took the AudChf for a Buy at .6341 with a stop loss at .6320 at Target set at .6370. There were other pairs on the radar but since I traded this pair Sunday Night I went back to it, hoping its tendencies are consistent with what my readings are telling me.

There is currently no clear favorite to trade this hour as far as I am concerned. The strategy calls for certain parameters to be met that are not being met right now. That being said, GbpNzd and EurNzd are on the radar but they are not checking off the boxes on some details that I am looking for so I will hold off from placing  a trade at this minute. I will check back in 30 minutes to see if anything has changed. Last night things got started pretty early in the Tokyo Session with AudChf . I still have my eye on that currency pair. Maybe the banks are waiting until after the Japan data releases to decide on their course of action. Maybe might strategy just does not have anything to trade today. Remember we are still offering a forex newsletter and forex strategy training .

AudChf made it to our target price during the London Session. It had a good head of steam and went up steadily for the most part. It had a pull back after our initial surge but this was after our target was hit. So this was my first trade since taking a break because of the volatility due to the Coronavirus. All in all it looks like the current environment can be traded if you have a sound strategy and are trading with the big money. We will see if this holds up. Keep in mind that the Tokyo session is known for being a less volatile time to trade. Getting back to what I was discussing last night during the Tokyo Session . It looks like the ChfJpy is on deck to be the play during the news. We will see. Looking at the charts on ChfJpy it definitely has some volatile periods. This could be during London session it appears.

AudChf looks like it is ready to go up some more. during Tokyo Session . No telling where it will go from here but the Australian currency has been doing fairly well against the Swiss Franc in the last few weeks. I believe the dollar stood in for the Swiss franc as a safe haven in the past few weeks. No telling how long this lasts. It could depend on the news that comes out of Washington this week. I took the AudChf Buy at .6247, Stop Loss .6225, and TP .6280

The Japanese Yen is a currency pair I plan to follow in the next 24 hours as I look to see whether it makes some moves that can lead to a high probability outlook for its path. The news that will be coming out about 30 minutes after NY close is Unemployment rate, BOJ Outlook report, BOJ Policy rate, and Monetary Policy Statement. BOJ Core CPI comes out 4 hours after Unemployment Rate. Right now the CadJpy looks interesting but it is still early. Now this might not be the ideal pair to trade  based on my strategy but since the news is coming out we will see if things come together enough to give the price a push. So as it looks right now we would be looking for the CadJpy to weaken if relatively good data comes out for Japan. We will be also looking at ChfJpy. On the flip side if weak data comes out we could take a look at AudJpy and NzdJpy. It all depends on how Jpy is doing at the time of news.

The U.S. dollar strengthens against the Kiwi today as the United States is contemplating reopening the United States. No word yet how far President Donald Trump is willing to go to get the United States back open again. If he opens it too early then he risks the Coronavirus gaining a foothold which puts the United States back towards social distancing measures. If he waits too long then some businesses might not make it out of the economic slump caused by the Coronavirus. it seems like the forex market is betting in the short term that he will get the United States going earlier then was at first expected. President Trump also faces a campaign against challenger Joe Biden that is shaping up to be focused on how the Coronavirus and the economy is evaluated. There is also the threat that reopening poses to the African American community which has been hit hard by the Coronavirus. The Japanese Yen gained strength over night against the New Zealand currency in what looks like a safe have...

The British Pound gained against the Canadian Dollar on Monday as Britain has made a bit of a turn around against other currencies. The GbpCad has been rising since March 26th and before that it was headed lower for two weeks.

The GbpUsd currency pair is gaining. It comes on the heels of the G20 meeting were nations pledged their support to help fight the Coronavirus outbreak around the world.

The British Pound made gains over night as it looks to get an edge on the Japanese Yen. The GbpJpy had been heading down for four weeks straight up until March 18th when the Central Bankers started making policy changes.

The Australian Dollar made big moves up against the Japanese Yen over night. The Reserve Bank Of Australia and the Federal Reserve opened a swap arrangement a few days ago. The movement of the AudJpy was not that smooth so it might have been difficult to catch this move with a tight stop loss.

President Trump has been coming on television almost daily as he tries to reassure the American public that the Coronavirus dilemma can be minimized efficiently. The GbpUsd has gone down again during the London Session and Asian Session . It could stay that way for the New York Session. The Japanese Yen is retaining its safe haven status at a lower level than the Dollar since the Federal reserve lowered interest rates. Chf is also performing well. UsdCad is also going up.

The British Pound weakened against the Dollar as the Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates. The Japanese Yen also remained relatively strong against the Aud. Canadian dollar also remained relatively strong. This was during Asian and London Session. So the dollar is performing a little better as a safe haven than the Japanese yen.

The AudJpy went lower as the Japanese currency strengthened over night during the Asian and London Session. The Australian currency is the gateway currency for the West into the Asian markets.

The CadJpy began the Tokyo Session very strong as fears over the Coronavirus have remained in the forex market. The difference this time around is that unlike the last few weeks, the Canadian Dollar has risen almost 100 pips in less than six hours. What is behind this move ? The Japanese Yen is known as a safe haven but it did not stay strong this time. So this is a developing story and I will keep track of how this currency performs in the near future.

The NzdChf is on a down trend that started days ago. New Zealand is the second economy behind Australia in order of economic impact from the Coronavirus. The Swiss currency is seen as a safe haven so it is attracting investors. New Zealand is still restricting travel and thinks that will last into March. NzdChf is currently at .6127 in Tokyo Session and could go down to .6085 by the end of London Session. The Trump Administration is gearing up to handle the virus in America. NzdChf Coronavirus

The New Zealand and Australian currencies have gotten more in line with their daily trends in the last four to five hours. Not sure if this will continue thru the Asian session into the London session because it happened so late and it has not been going on for that long but it is to be noted. Currency Speculators that did well last week selling the New Zealand currency and the Australian have their eyes on the same play that was in motion last week. You can ride this thing all the way down if the signals stay strong. I do not know about taking it into the volatile New York session . Still not where I would like to see it to pull the trigger but it is looking better. New Zealand extended its travel restrictions to Tuesday, March 3. I will let you decide what you think about the numbers coming out of China involving the Coronavirus .

Astonishingly enough the AUD is doing quite well during the Asian(Tokyo) session. I had thought that it would continue to fall but it appears that some of the fears from the Coronavirus and the economy have been priced in from last week. The AUDUSD moved up to .6616 after a few hours of Asian trading. There was a report from the WHO that said the Coronavirus had peaked in January. So it could be a bit of profit taking from last week and the thought that the worst of the virus has come already. I am going to resist the temptation to jump into this trend until I see more traditional signals in the market. More strength from the four hour and hourly trends flowing back to the daily readings. New Zealand's currency is also doing quite well a few hours into the Asian session despite fears from Coronavirus. AUD Coronavirus

I have been checking my readings for the last five hours and there does not seem to be anything I would venture to place a bet on in the currency market. When you are currency speculating sometimes you have to take a step back and not trade as much. USDCHF is not showing signs that I would like to see. They had a big drop Friday in a few currencies at the end and it looks like they are slowly recovering but it is doing a number on my trend analysis. The time frames are not lining up like I like to see. AUDCHF is not in line with my strategy. CHFJPY is in a downtrend for the short time frame less than 1 day. It looks like there was a good deal of squaring up orders at the end of trading Friday. I am going to sit this one out and wait until the patterns are stronger. EurUsd had a run up at the end of trading Friday but it is in short term downtrend for the Tokyo session. German business climate comes out in about 5 hours and FOMC Member Mester speaks at about noon eastern.