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Showing posts from April, 2020

Is Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison Handling The China Disagreement Over Coronavirus Reasonably ?

Let's get one thing straight. Everybody is frustrated by how the Coronavirus has taken over the world's economy. There is no doubt about it. The Covid-19 is a juggernaut of epic proportions. Things came to a head this week when the United States' President, Donald Trump, insinuated that he would like to see China brought to task for the role they have played, in the Coronavirus epidemic spreading to almost every country. Now President Trump is not one to mince words. He says there is more going on with China's role in the epidemic and he is not at liberty to divulge this information just yet.

The currency markets are very sensitive to geopolitical movements. When President Trump Tweets or PM Scott Morrison makes a statement and it reaches a crescendo in the news cycle. The currency markets react. Governments react, the big banks get into the act. I do not know much about PM Scott Morrison, I have not followed him for that long but he does seem to think, from what I hav…

The Currency Markets Are Disjointed During Asian Session

The recent trouble that the United States was part of and Australia joined in on over the Coronavirus has disturbed the currency markets. The Asian session is showing no clear direction and currencies that were trending have stopped in their tracks and reversed course. It looks like the big players have decided to hit the pause button and just cash in some of their profits. We will have to stay tuned to see what becomes of the dispute between China and Australia. The last thing I heard was that the two countries were trying to work on a diplomatic solution. The market might find some direction later tonight or during the London Session but it looks like The Asian session is taking a cooling off period. 
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Why Currency Speculation Will Make It Through The Coronavirus Dilemma

Currency Speculation in its highest form is far from a flip of a coin. Believe it or not, the forex markets actually have a strong degree of logic and science to them that insures that the basic premises of economics are to be respected and followed with the utmost care. A lot of stock traders have to put up with the notion that they are just gambling and that there is no fundamental reason to choose to sell or buy a stock besides a hunch. This is not true and I feel for my fellow traders even though it is not the same as currency trading.

Currency trading is an art form in a way. People like George Soros one of the finest artists in his day. There are so many moving parts to the actual prediction of which way a currency pair is going to move in X amount of time that it takes the cake as one of the most complicated forms of trading. The amount of patience required to trade forex is immense. The foreign exchange market does not move nearly as fast as the stock market. The other fact th…

We Closed Our Trade From Last Night On AudChf In Profit

I woke up this morning and checked the charts. To my delight the trade we made on AudChf was in profit by 24 pips so we closed the trade and booked the profit. I gave the trade 15 hours to go in my favor. That is about as long as you need for these current strategies that I am running. Anything more and you risk the fundamentals of the trade being influenced by some outside factor that was not part of the planning.

We took our Profit at .6370, so I am delighted to see this. The profit was booked during New York and London Session. We got in during Tokyo Session. So we will see how long the Swiss franc stays weak.

In other news the AudUsd looks like a play. We have not been following it that closely because we have other pairs on the radar but looking at the charts this morning it looks like it is trending fairly smoothly.

AudChf Is On Radar Going Up

The Australian Dollar is showing strength this week and the Swiss Franc has been weak. The AudChf currency pair is showing signs of being a reasonable choice. It has been moved rather steadily for the last few days on an upward trajectory. It pauses sometimes and there seems to be profit taking but the overall trend is up and trading trends is a major part of my strategy.

I took the AudChf for a Buy at .6341 with a stop loss at .6320 at Target set at .6370. There were other pairs on the radar but since I traded this pair Sunday Night I went back to it, hoping its tendencies are consistent with what my readings are telling me.


EurAud Is Heading Lower Today Consistently

I did not see much last night on the charts but it looks like EurAud has shaped up fairly nicely to meet the criteria of a possible trade. The only problem is that it shaped up during the New York and London Session which is not the time I like to trade. If you widen your stop losses(assuming you use SL) it might be something you could get away with trading during the New York Session. I rather stay out and wait for a better entry. Like I got with AudChf yesterday. Aud is staying strong so far this week. No doubt the fact that the Australian currency is tied to Gold and we are in the middle of a financial crisis is driving this.

Looking At Forex charts There Is No Clear Favorite

There is currently no clear favorite to trade this hour as far as I am concerned. The strategy calls for certain parameters to be met that are not being met right now. That being said, GbpNzd and EurNzd are on the radar but they are not checking off the boxes on some details that I am looking for so I will hold off from placing  a trade at this minute.

I will check back in 30 minutes to see if anything has changed. Last night things got started pretty early in the Tokyo Session with AudChf. I still have my eye on that currency pair. Maybe the banks are waiting until after the Japan data releases to decide on their course of action. Maybe might strategy just does not have anything to trade today.

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Swiss Franc Weakens As Safe Haven Status Put On Backburner

The Swiss Franc has weakened Monday to a great extent as many currencies have been trading very good against the Old Guard Safe Haven. The USD took a little of the safe haven status for itself as the dollar traded fairly strong in the opening of the New York Session.

It could be that speculators are going with commodity currencies that are closely tied to Gold and Iron. CadChf is up and so is AudChf.

We Hit Our PT of .6280 Last Night On AudChf

AudChf made it to our target price during the London Session. It had a good head of steam and went up steadily for the most part. It had a pull back after our initial surge but this was after our target was hit. So this was my first trade since taking a break because of the volatility due to the Coronavirus. All in all it looks like the current environment can be traded if you have a sound strategy and are trading with the big money. We will see if this holds up. Keep in mind that the Tokyo session is known for being a less volatile time to trade.

Getting back to what I was discussing last night during the Tokyo Session. It looks like the ChfJpy is on deck to be the play during the news. We will see. Looking at the charts on ChfJpy it definitely has some volatile periods. This could be during London session it appears.


AudChf Looks Ready to Go Up

AudChf looks like it is ready to go up some more. during Tokyo Session. No telling where it will go from here but the Australian currency has been doing fairly well against the Swiss Franc in the last few weeks. I believe the dollar stood in for the Swiss franc as a safe haven in the past few weeks. No telling how long this lasts. It could depend on the news that comes out of Washington this week.
I took the AudChf Buy at .6247, Stop Loss .6225, and TP .6280

Japanese Yen is On The Radar As Economic Data Comes Monday

The Japanese Yen is a currency pair I plan to follow in the next 24 hours as I look to see whether it makes some moves that can lead to a high probability outlook for its path. The news that will be coming out about 30 minutes after NY close is Unemployment rate, BOJ Outlook report, BOJ Policy rate, and Monetary Policy Statement. BOJ Core CPI comes out 4 hours after Unemployment Rate. Right now the CadJpy looks interesting but it is still early. Now this might not be the ideal pair to trade  based on my strategy but since the news is coming out we will see if things come together enough to give the price a push. So as it looks right now we would be looking for the CadJpy to weaken if relatively good data comes out for Japan. We will be also looking at ChfJpy. On the flip side if weak data comes out we could take a look at AudJpy and NzdJpy. It all depends on how Jpy is doing at the time of news.

NzdChf Is Showing Moves to Upside

The New Zealand dollar has been strengthening against the Swiss franc in trading in the last couple hours and the last 24 hours. New Zealand has been working on their WorkSafe plan and have made decisions to move financial services sector toward normalization. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released this statement. Check out the Forex Newsletter
https://grassrootscurrencyspeculation.blogspot.com/2020/04/forex-strategy-coaching-and-training.html
If a workplace reopens, it must create a formal plan which details how they are keeping people safe at Level 3 and dealing with COVID related risks.. Businesses do not have to present these plans in order to operate, but will be expected to produce it when requested by WorkSafe, who will be conducting checks across New Zealand and all sectors. Further information, guidance and a template for these plans is available at WorkSafe. If you are already operating at Level 4, and have a formal plan in place, we ask that you review these against Level …

GbpNzd is gaining momentum to the down side

The British pound is giving ground to the New Zealand dollar this Monday. The currency pair is showing a steady downward trajectory with a few retracements on the way down. It is still not quite the type of price action we like to see but GbpNzd might be a good play to get 75 pips while keeping a 40-50 pip stop loss. A little wider than we normally use but that is because of the extra volatility that is in the market now. Not the best of environments but if you must trade you can try it.

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Find Out What Pair The Bankers Are Trading Everyday- Delivered to Your Email

                   How is Forex trading going for you lately ? Probably not great, I know. I have a solution for you. Subscribe to my newsletter. Clifford Bryan is Managing Director of Grassroots Currency Speculation. Having graduated from Morehouse College at the age of 22, Mr. Clifford Bryan has more than 13 years of experience in the financial markets with a specific focus on currencies. His career started at Oanda where he worked on the interbank FX trading desk making markets in foreign exchange and later in the cross markets proprietary trading group where he traded FX spot. In 2003, Clifford joined Blueskimmer and started Grassrootscurrencyspeculation.blogspot.com, a leading online foreign exchange research portal. As Chief Strategist, he managed a team of analysts dedicated to providing research and commentary on the foreign exchange market. In 2008, Clifford joined GRCS as Director of Currency Research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global f…

NzdUsd and NzdJpy Make Moves Lower

The U.S. dollar strengthens against the Kiwi today as the United States is contemplating reopening the United States. No word yet how far President Donald Trump is willing to go to get the United States back open again. If he opens it too early then he risks the Coronavirus gaining a foothold which puts the United States back towards social distancing measures. If he waits too long then some businesses might not make it out of the economic slump caused by the Coronavirus. it seems like the forex market is betting in the short term that he will get the United States going earlier then was at first expected. President Trump also faces a campaign against challenger Joe Biden that is shaping up to be focused on how the Coronavirus and the economy is evaluated. There is also the threat that reopening poses to the African American community which has been hit hard by the Coronavirus.

The Japanese Yen gained strength over night against the New Zealand currency in what looks like a safe haven…

CadJpy Weakens As Japan Safe Haven Status Flares Up

The Safe haven status of Japan has been rearing its head fairly often as it struggles to retain its place in the old guard of the forex establishment. The CadJpy was under that influence lately as Canada learns a little about how things work when there is a global crisis going on. this effect might not last for that long so it maybe a short ride if you go with this pair.

AudUsd Is Making strong Move Up

The Australian Dollar has gained strength against the Dollar in the last three days as the commodity bearing economy of Australia makes its way during the pandemic. The Dollar has been giving ground as Americans wait for stimulus payments to come through and President Trump talks about getting America open for business again.

AudCad Is Showing Good Movement Up

The Australian Dollar made a big move today against the Canadian Dollar. The AudCad rose up very smoothly and consistently and it looked like a good play for a Buy order. This was the first time in three weeks that I saw less volatility in the movement of a currency. So this is a sign that the currency markets are starting to become less volatile. It is probably also because both of these currencies are tied to commodities like oil and gold.

AudUsd Rises Amid Coronavirus Economics

The AudUsd currency rose today in the New York Session. The Australian Dollar is the gateway to the Asian economy and it appears that the general idea is that the Australian economy will be able to manage through this tough period. The U.S. economy is expected to take a large hit as unemployment applications have risen to record numbers. Australia is tied to the commodity market as well. Things like Gold.

CadJpy Is making a Move Down

The Canadian Dollar is weakening against the Japanese Yen in Mid day trading. the Currency pair has been going down steadily but not in a straight line. More of in an up and down motion that leans toward going down more on bars. The CadJpy is a good indicator of sentiment about the Coronavirus economy. Japan is retaining its safe haven status with this pair quite nicely.