Grassroots Currency Speculation

Let's get one thing straight. Everybody is frustrated by how the Coronavirus has taken over the world's economy. There is no doubt about it. The Covid-19 is a juggernaut of epic proportions. Things came to a head this week when the United States' President, Donald Trump, insinuated that he would like to see China brought to task for the role they have played, in the Coronavirus epidemic spreading to almost every country. Now President Trump is not one to mince words. He says there is more going on with China's role in the epidemic and he is not at liberty to divulge this information just yet. The currency markets are very sensitive to geopolitical movements. When President Trump Tweets or PM Scott Morrison makes a statement and it reaches a crescendo in the news cycle. The currency markets react. Governments react, the big banks get into the act. I do not know much about PM Scott Morrison, I have not followed him for that long but he does seem to think, from what I ha...

I woke up this morning and checked the charts. To my delight the trade we made on AudChf was in profit by 24 pips so we closed the trade and booked the profit. I gave the trade 15 hours to go in my favor. That is about as long as you need for these current strategies that I am running. Anything more and you risk the fundamentals of the trade being influenced by some outside factor that was not part of the planning. We took our Profit at .6370, so I am delighted to see this. The profit was booked during New York and London Session. We got in during Tokyo Session. So we will see how long the Swiss franc stays weak. In other news the AudUsd looks like a play. We have not been following it that closely because we have other pairs on the radar but looking at the charts this morning it looks like it is trending fairly smoothly.

The Australian Dollar is showing strength this week and the Swiss Franc has been weak. The AudChf currency pair is showing signs of being a reasonable choice. It has been moved rather steadily for the last few days on an upward trajectory. It pauses sometimes and there seems to be profit taking but the overall trend is up and trading trends is a major part of my strategy. I took the AudChf for a Buy at .6341 with a stop loss at .6320 at Target set at .6370. There were other pairs on the radar but since I traded this pair Sunday Night I went back to it, hoping its tendencies are consistent with what my readings are telling me.

I did not see much last night on the charts but it looks like EurAud has shaped up fairly nicely to meet the criteria of a possible trade. The only problem is that it shaped up during the New York and London Session which is not the time I like to trade. If you widen your stop losses(assuming you use SL) it might be something you could get away with trading during the New York Session. I rather stay out and wait for a better entry. Like I got with AudChf yesterday. Aud is staying strong so far this week. No doubt the fact that the Australian currency is tied to Gold and we are in the middle of a financial crisis is driving this.

The Swiss Franc has weakened Monday to a great extent as many currencies have been trading very good against the Old Guard Safe Haven. The USD took a little of the safe haven status for itself as the dollar traded fairly strong in the opening of the New York Session. It could be that speculators are going with commodity currencies that are closely tied to Gold and Iron. CadChf is up and so is AudChf .

AudChf made it to our target price during the London Session. It had a good head of steam and went up steadily for the most part. It had a pull back after our initial surge but this was after our target was hit. So this was my first trade since taking a break because of the volatility due to the Coronavirus. All in all it looks like the current environment can be traded if you have a sound strategy and are trading with the big money. We will see if this holds up. Keep in mind that the Tokyo session is known for being a less volatile time to trade. Getting back to what I was discussing last night during the Tokyo Session . It looks like the ChfJpy is on deck to be the play during the news. We will see. Looking at the charts on ChfJpy it definitely has some volatile periods. This could be during London session it appears.

AudChf looks like it is ready to go up some more. during Tokyo Session . No telling where it will go from here but the Australian currency has been doing fairly well against the Swiss Franc in the last few weeks. I believe the dollar stood in for the Swiss franc as a safe haven in the past few weeks. No telling how long this lasts. It could depend on the news that comes out of Washington this week. I took the AudChf Buy at .6247, Stop Loss .6225, and TP .6280

The Australian Dollar made a big move today against the Canadian Dollar. The AudCad rose up very smoothly and consistently and it looked like a good play for a Buy order. This was the first time in three weeks that I saw less volatility in the movement of a currency. So this is a sign that the currency markets are starting to become less volatile. It is probably also because both of these currencies are tied to commodities like oil and gold.

The AudUsd currency rose today in the New York Session. The Australian Dollar is the gateway to the Asian economy and it appears that the general idea is that the Australian economy will be able to manage through this tough period. The U.S. economy is expected to take a large hit as unemployment applications have risen to record numbers. Australia is tied to the commodity market as well. Things like Gold.

The British Pound fell against the Australian dollar as speculators and central banks weighed the fall out from the latest economic news. There was an announcement that the Prime Minister of Britain is in ICU care now. The Australian dollar is finding its way as the implications for their economy are figured out.

The Australian Dollar made big moves up against the Japanese Yen over night. The Reserve Bank Of Australia and the Federal Reserve opened a swap arrangement a few days ago. The movement of the AudJpy was not that smooth so it might have been difficult to catch this move with a tight stop loss.

AudJpy went against the eight day trend and started to rise in the last 24 hours. This comes as Reserve Bank Of Australia announced an interest rate cut . They also announced a package of financial measures to combat the economic effects of the Coronavirus outbreak. Most of movement occurred during London Session. NzdJpy also reversed course and headed upward.

The Dollar gained against the Australian currency during the London session as The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to deal with the economic implications of the Coronavirus. This is an indication that the Dollar maybe viewed as a safe haven currency during these unsteady economic times. The AudUsd has gone down steadily for 24 hours.

The AudJpy went lower as the Japanese currency strengthened over night during the Asian and London Session. The Australian currency is the gateway currency for the West into the Asian markets.

The New Zealand and Australian currencies have gotten more in line with their daily trends in the last four to five hours. Not sure if this will continue thru the Asian session into the London session because it happened so late and it has not been going on for that long but it is to be noted. Currency Speculators that did well last week selling the New Zealand currency and the Australian have their eyes on the same play that was in motion last week. You can ride this thing all the way down if the signals stay strong. I do not know about taking it into the volatile New York session . Still not where I would like to see it to pull the trigger but it is looking better. New Zealand extended its travel restrictions to Tuesday, March 3. I will let you decide what you think about the numbers coming out of China involving the Coronavirus .

Astonishingly enough the AUD is doing quite well during the Asian(Tokyo) session. I had thought that it would continue to fall but it appears that some of the fears from the Coronavirus and the economy have been priced in from last week. The AUDUSD moved up to .6616 after a few hours of Asian trading. There was a report from the WHO that said the Coronavirus had peaked in January. So it could be a bit of profit taking from last week and the thought that the worst of the virus has come already. I am going to resist the temptation to jump into this trend until I see more traditional signals in the market. More strength from the four hour and hourly trends flowing back to the daily readings. New Zealand's currency is also doing quite well a few hours into the Asian session despite fears from Coronavirus. AUD Coronavirus