Grassroots Currency Speculation

The British pound and the Japanese Yen are in a heated battle as the Coronavirus takes center stage. The Japanese Yen has retained a good bit of its Safe haven status over this period drawing in buyers. Effective interest rates is to be published March 2, 2020 at 9:30 . Gbpchf has also been going down for four days. GbpJpy has been going down for the last four days. On Monday the BOE will give the forex market something to think about. GbpJpy GbpChf Safe Haven Coronavirus

Jerome Powell released a press release today about the influence of the Coronavirus and the Dollar fell soon after against the Australian currency. Actually it fell across the board. Before that the Dollar was gaining strength for most of the day. There is about another hour to go and you never know if it will regain some of that lost momentum. The Aud and Nzd have made something of a recovery from yesterday so this is not a good last few days to try to make a profit in less than 24 hours  unless you know what you are doing with your stop loss for safety. Update : The Dollar has strengthened a little against most currencies in the last 30 minutes as we go to print.

I tell myself to stay clear of the New York and London Session intersection because it can get volatile like today. I know some of this is because of the current climate over the Coronavirus but I think even in normal times it is a bit to disorderly for me at this time. I know the stories of how you can make fast money during the intersection of London and New York but it might not be worth it. I would have to study it. I use stop losses for safety and a highly volatile market is going to take me out of some trades that might have gone on to do well. The goal is to gauge just how much room you need on your stop loss to let your theoretical opinion about the two economies have a chance . Needless to say my theoretical opinion about the fundamentals should involve high probability trades. So at this time my trade on NzdChf made it into positive territory and the GbpChf trade is at zero profit. It went as far down as $60-$70 today. The Switzerland currency is supposed to be a safe h

The Pound has been vulnerable these past few weeks. Britain is seeing some instability from a geopolitical stand point as Harry and his wife Meghan develop their new role with Queen Elizabeth II. So the monarchy has had a rough few weeks as of late and it is influencing the currency. EurGbp and GbpChf are interesting symbols to watch as this saga develops. Does this movement have legs ? Apparently so, but it all depends on how the Coronavirus plays out and Britain's relationship with the European Union. Chf is strong now because of its historical safe haven status during times of crisis. This update was done during the London Session. British Pound instability

The NzdChf is on a down trend that started days ago. New Zealand is the second economy behind Australia in order of economic impact from the Coronavirus. The Swiss currency is seen as a safe haven so it is attracting investors. New Zealand is still restricting travel and thinks that will last into March. NzdChf is currently at .6127 in Tokyo Session and could go down to .6085 by the end of London Session. The Trump Administration is gearing up to handle the virus in America. NzdChf Coronavirus

China has a big problem on their hands and if they do not cooperate with the rest of the world it might cost extra lives as countries race for a vaccine. Not long after the Coronavirus outbreak Chinese scientists loaded the genetic sequence for the virus to a public database. You have to commend them for that. A company by the name of Moderna is using a technique called rapid response platforms to develop the vaccine. Moderna was up 20% today on Nasdaq trading. China Vaccine Coronavirus The Japanese currency JPY has remained strong for the last week.

The AudCad is trending down as speculators view the Australian economy as being weakened the most by the Coronavirus outbreak. It is a strong trade partner with China and that will be drastically reduced. The numbers are still not in as to how much of a hit the Australian economy will take. On the Canadian side of it Cad is closely tied to Gold so that is in play as people seek safe havens. While in America people are starting to wonder if President Trump is preparing the public enough. AudCad Coronavirus

The Japanese government led by Abe has been getting criticized for its handling of the Coronavirus but the forex markets do not seem to think that Japan has that big a problem on its hands. When compared to Australia, Japan looks to be in decent shape. It is important to note that the AudJpy has returned to its trend on the daily that has been going on for four days. So despite the fears in Japan of the Coronavirus getting out of control it appears that Australia might have a harder time of it from an economic stand point. No way to tell how long this will last but for now the AudJpy is looking like it could test lower territory. It could hit 72.00 in the next day or so. This analysis was done in the middle of New York Session. AudJpy Coronavirus

The New Zealand and Australian currencies have gotten more in line with their daily trends in the last four to five hours. Not sure if this will continue thru the Asian session into the London session because it happened so late and it has not been going on for that long but it is to be noted. Currency Speculators that did well last week selling the New Zealand currency and the Australian have their eyes on the same play that was in motion last week. You can ride this thing all the way down if the signals stay strong. I do not know about taking it into the volatile New York session . Still not where I would like to see it to pull the trigger but it is looking better. New Zealand extended its travel restrictions to Tuesday, March 3. I will let you decide what you think about the numbers coming out of China involving the Coronavirus .

Astonishingly enough the AUD is doing quite well during the Asian(Tokyo) session. I had thought that it would continue to fall but it appears that some of the fears from the Coronavirus and the economy have been priced in from last week. The AUDUSD moved up to .6616 after a few hours of Asian trading. There was a report from the WHO that said the Coronavirus had peaked in January. So it could be a bit of profit taking from last week and the thought that the worst of the virus has come already. I am going to resist the temptation to jump into this trend until I see more traditional signals in the market. More strength from the four hour and hourly trends flowing back to the daily readings. New Zealand's currency is also doing quite well a few hours into the Asian session despite fears from Coronavirus. AUD Coronavirus

I pray for the traders that try to make sense of the New York Session in forex with the markets on a roller coaster ride because of the Coronavirus. AudUsd, EurUsd, and a host of other currencies reversed course after lunch time. This is getting complicated because obviously you have the stock market where the Dow was down 1000 points. So in forex there was already profit taking going on from the week before and now you had currencies establishing new trends for Monday. They have all gave up some of their gains that were made. As you well know I prefer to trade the Asian Session to prevent myself from running into the type of volatility that is being experienced in the markets today. It is going to be a long week for some people that got caught up in the Coronavirus hysteria. picture by Clifford A. Bryan

I have been checking my readings for the last five hours and there does not seem to be anything I would venture to place a bet on in the currency market. When you are currency speculating sometimes you have to take a step back and not trade as much. USDCHF is not showing signs that I would like to see. They had a big drop Friday in a few currencies at the end and it looks like they are slowly recovering but it is doing a number on my trend analysis. The time frames are not lining up like I like to see. AUDCHF is not in line with my strategy. CHFJPY is in a downtrend for the short time frame less than 1 day. It looks like there was a good deal of squaring up orders at the end of trading Friday. I am going to sit this one out and wait until the patterns are stronger. EurUsd had a run up at the end of trading Friday but it is in short term downtrend for the Tokyo session. German business climate comes out in about 5 hours and FOMC Member Mester speaks at about noon eastern.

                        Greetings to all. This is my first post on my new blog and I felt it would be a good topic to discuss a recent trade of mine that took place February 21, 2020 at about 4 A.M. MT4 broker time. The good old Tokyo session or Asian session for newbies. It is a good time because the influence of the news is not as powerful as other times. I am a firm believer in getting a feel for a session in the first few hours. Do not just rush in and trade. I trade manually at the minute. As you well know the Coronavirus is a hot topic around the world and even more so in the Pacific areas. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in their monetary policy statement that they do not think the situation in China will go past February as far as the economic implications. I am not so sure about this. The currency that found its way onto my radar was NZDCHF. PM Ardern made a statement about the expected GDP numbers.                          So when you put all the facts together abou